Bid the work you can win at margin.
Every invitation scored against the 412 bids you have already submitted — owner, delivery method, competitor set, program, trade mix, margin. The calibration is published beside the number, so a bid/no-bid call can be argued with.
What it does
Estimating capacity is the scarcest thing in a precon office, and it gets spent on whatever arrived most recently. Every invitation is scored on what has actually decided your bids before: the owner and how they award, the delivery method, who else is on the list, program length, trade mix, and the margin you are carrying.
A score is only worth having if it is honest, so the calibration is published with it. Across 412 bids, work scored at 40% was won 38% of the time — 2.4 points of error, measured rather than claimed. Where the evidence is thin, a first-time owner or a market you have never bid, it reports the thinness instead of guessing at a number.
How it works
- 01
Read the invitation
Owner, delivery method, contract form, program, trade mix and the bidder list where it is published — plus whatever the tender ingestion run has already found buried in the package.
- 02
Score against your record
The opportunity is compared with 412 bids you have submitted: the ones you won, the ones you lost, and by how much. Every score opens to the past bids it was drawn from.
- 03
Publish the calibration
Each score carries the observed win rate for its band and the sample size behind it. Thin evidence is reported as thin evidence, and the bid/no-bid decision stays with a person.
Spec
- SAMPLE
- 412 BIDS · WON + LOST
- WIN RATE
- 38 %
- CALIBRATION ERROR
- 2.4 PTS
- INPUTS
- OWNER · METHOD · FIELD · MARGIN
38 %
Win rate across the bids scored and chased